From: E R <nkaidou <at> webtv <dot> net>
Date: 31 aug 2004
Subject: Re: ama/pro ratings


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Isn't adding a set number of points too simple? Wouldn't you use a
multiplier instead?

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To: shogi <at> topica <dot> com
From: Larry Kaufman <lkaufman <at> comcast <dot> net>
Subject: ama/pro ratings
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 11:21:14 -0400
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     Based on the recent information about pro and amateur rating lists, it=
 is now possible for me to draw some conclusions about the chances of any g=
iven amateur to win a tournament game from any given pro. We have three rat=
ing lists to work from (I'm excluding SC 24, since the majority of players =
there play under pseudonyms); the Pro rating list, the Amateur Renmei ratin=
g list, and the Pan-Atlantic list. To make comparisons, the levels of these=
 three lists must first be established.
     To compare the levels of the Pro list with the Pan-Atlantic list, I ob=
served that we have three "Amateurs" on the Pan-Atlantic list (current or 2=
003 lists) who are past holders of at least one major Japanese national ama=
teur championship, and so are presumably of around the same level on averag=
e as those amateurs who have qualified to compete in Pro tournaments by win=
ning some top amateur event. The average rating of those three on the Pan-A=
tlantic list is 2657, while the rating given for the average Amateur in Pro=
 tournaments is 2519. So based on this, Pan-Atlantic ratings need to be low=
ered by 138 points for direct comparisons to be made with the Pro list.
     For example, my latest Pan-Atlantic rating is 2341. If we subtract 138=
 from this, we get 2203 as an estimate of what my rating would be on the Pr=
o list. Habu's rating on that list is 3122. According to rating theory, whe=
n the rating difference is 919 points, the lower rated player should win ab=
out 1 game out of 200. So from the available evidence, that would be my cha=
nce against Habu in an even game. Other Western players are invited to perf=
orm similar calculations if they wish to estimate their chances against Hab=
u or any other Pro.
     As for the Amateur Renmei list, clearly it is lower than the Pro list.=
 If we make the assumption that the top ten players on that list are compar=
able to those who qualify for Pro tournaments, the average of their ratings=
 is 2419, exactly 100 below the average given on the Pro list, so players o=
n the Amateur Renmei list should add 100 points to make comparisons with pr=
os. Of course I don't know how valid my assumption is.
     Larry Kaufman=20

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<PRE>Your free subscription is supported by today's sponsor:
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</PRE>

<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Based on the rece=
nt=20
information about pro and amateur rating lists, it is now possible for me t=
o=20
draw some conclusions about the chances of any given amateur to win a tourn=
ament=20
game from any given pro. We have three rating lists to work from (I'm exclu=
ding=20
SC 24, since the majority of players there play under pseudonyms); the Pro=
=20
rating list, the Amateur Renmei rating list, and the Pan-Atlantic list. To =
make=20
comparisons, the levels of these three lists must first be=20
established.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; To compare the le=
vels of=20
the Pro list with the Pan-Atlantic list, I observed that we have three=20
"Amateurs" on the Pan-Atlantic list (current or 2003 lists) who are past ho=
lders=20
of at least one major Japanese national amateur championship, and so are=
=20
presumably of around the same level on average as those amateurs who have=
=20
qualified to compete in Pro tournaments by winning some top amateur event. =
The=20
average rating of those three on the Pan-Atlantic list is 2657, while the r=
ating=20
given for the average Amateur in Pro tournaments is 2519. So based on this,=
=20
Pan-Atlantic ratings need to be lowered by 138 points for direct comparison=
s to=20
be made with the Pro list.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; For example, my l=
atest=20
Pan-Atlantic rating is 2341. If we subtract 138 from this, we get 2203 as a=
n=20
estimate of what my rating would be on the Pro list. Habu's rating on that =
list=20
is 3122. According to rating theory, when the rating difference is 919 poin=
ts,=20
the lower rated player should win about 1 game out of 200. So from the avai=
lable=20
evidence, that would be my chance against Habu in an even game. Other Weste=
rn=20
players are invited to perform similar calculations if they wish to estimat=
e=20
their chances against Habu or any other Pro.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; As for the Amateu=
r Renmei=20
list, clearly it is lower than the Pro list.&nbsp;If we make the assumption=
 that=20
the top ten players on that list are comparable to those who qualify for Pr=
o=20
tournaments, the average of their ratings is 2419, exactly 100 below the av=
erage=20
given on the Pro list, so players on the Amateur Renmei list should add 100=
=20
points to make comparisons with pros. Of&nbsp;course I don't know how valid=
 my=20
assumption is.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Larry=20
Kaufman</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
</FONT></DIV>=
<PRE>Your free subscription is supported by today's sponsor:
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