From: James Harnett USWEST NET> Date: 6 mar 2000 Subject: Re: # of potential shogi players > >> Manabu: If the consensus is made that the shogi population > >> outside Japan will sooner or later reach 30 million, >> Colin: I would suggest that 1% is over-optimistic, let alone= 10%. > Doug: I would say about 15% of the chess players here have tried it and about 5% stick with it for a long= time. It's easy to get 10% of chessplayers to at least try it,=20 Most all of the people that I converse with about Chess, say that they do so because it is fun and challenging. I often suggest that Shogi would then be a game that they might enjoy even more. I tell them that it is quite similar to Chess but with more depth to it, making it more fun and challenging to play. If I pursue their interest at that point, I can pull in 20% to 30% of those Chess players, who will at least try it. The only reason that some of them have not continued with Shogi, I find, is that there are few Shogi players around for them to play with, especially among their friends (who play Chess). When ever I have gotten them to play for a 1 - 2 year period, they never seem to go back to Chess, saying that it has become too boring, relative to Shogi. They opt for Shogi. I feel that 15% to 20% of all Chess players outside of Japan is a realistic percent of the Chess people who will eventually try Shogi. I believe that 80% of those who can stay with it long enough to feel comfortable, will remain active in Shogi. Finally, I'm sure that only 20% of the remaining Chess people who try Shogi, will not continue, only because they have not had enough time to full appreciate it's value in bringing them pleasure. I therefore, side with the group predicting that 10% to 15% of all Chess players outside of Japan will eventually paly Shogi. James Harnett =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D James M. Harnett, (503) 282-8698 mharnett uswest net P.O. Box 12150 Portland, Oregon 97212-0150 U.S.A. =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D For technical information on viruses, worms and Trojan horses, see: Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute (CERT=AE Coordination Center, DARPA, U.S. DoD) http://www.cert.org/advisories/ (cai - v4.0 sig 9.20 - v4.5 / v5.0 sig 308 Mar 01, 2000) =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D